These are my quick thoughts on QE3 before my views get corrupted by the financial media:
- Instead of buying treasuries, this time the Fed will focus on mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"), which are essentially treasuries backed by real estate given the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with the stated intent of stimulating the still rather tepid real estate market
- This will drive mortgage rates, which are at historic lows already, down further, with dubious benefits to real estate prices. The bottlenecks here, which politicians will not admit, are 1) banks are only willing to lend at those rates to buyers with the best credit, 2) homeowners are not willing to sell and take losses unless they absolutely have to due to life events, and the real estate market will not recover until it finds the bottom
- Thus, the main benefactors of QE3 will be the current holders of MBS, primarily financial institutions, institutional investors and foreign governments
- Corporations have gone through two rounds of QE with the more creditworthy ones sitting on piles of cash and the less creditworthy ones getting by due to low interest rates. This is not going to change with QE3
- There will be a short-term bump in the stock market, which has been fluctuating based on human sentiments and computer algorithms' expectations of Fed and ECB actions. Given that the suspense is over for now, there should be a looser correlation between individual stocks and the general market so in the medium term, companies' revenue growth and earnings will matter more
- Commodities will be the clear winner, and more so if 1) the ECB ends up selling US dollars to buy Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds, 2) bad harvests lead to food shortages, and 3) things get out of control in the Middle East
Friday, September 14, 2012
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Should I get a full-time MBA in the US?
Since September and hence the application season are round the corner, I thought it would be a good time to offer my two cents on whether young professionals should get a full-time MBA degree. My cousin (an Asian male in his late twenties working in a professional service firm in the US) happened to ask me this question a couple months ago and this was my response, in bullet points ...
- MBA education must only be weighed on a return on investment basis, comparing the cost and time of getting the degree with your projected future earnings. If you want to learn something theoretical, go read a book. If you want to learn how something actually works, talk to multiple people in that field. If you are bored and unhappy with your job, get a better one if you can. Otherwise just suck it up
- I don't know about the MBA job market enough these days but my gut tells me that only positions that are recruiting in top 10 or maybe top 20 MBA programs will offer the right returns on investment for someone that has a well-paid job in a professional service firm to spend $100,000 and forgo 2 years of income
- Don't even think about your employer paying for your MBA unless you work for a major management consulting firm, a big corporation that has specific arrangements with a top business school (Ford-HBS comes to my mind) or a non-US government entity (Singapore government and Japan central bank/ministry of finance come to my mind)
- GMAT scores are generally used as gatekeepers for top MBA programs. Once you pass a certain score, it doesn't matter. That said, the GMAT threshold for Asian males is at least 730 these days for top MBA programs
- For Asian males, there are generally two ways of getting into a top MBA program: 1) Have an impeccable resume, i.e. Ivy undergraduate degree, 3.8+ GPA, 2 years in an investment bank + 2 years in a major private equity/hedge fund or 2 years in a management consulting firm + 2 years doing something interesting or 2) From now on, do everything right to the admissions people but silly otherwise (e.g. working 50 hours a week and being in the top tier in a professional service firm + be the chairperson of your local Habitat for Humanity chapter + take a leave of absence for 3 months volunteering in Tibet) and beg (I mean it literally) them to let you in
- I assume both options are not applicable or appealing to you so I will skip the pros and cons but let me tell you who are the people that would most likely thrive in top MBA programs: women and minorities (and needless to say Asian males don't count), people that are and can sound passionate but don't know enough about investment banking or management consulting, people that have very specific dream jobs that top business schools can bridge to (the best example I have heard of is product manager for Xbox, another example is MBA marketing programs for major consumer packaged goods corporations like Kraft and Pepsi which bridge to top marketing jobs in the country), smart and capable professionals that are making very little money now so the return on investment is high (e.g. Navy SEALs, failed entrepreneurs, anyone from the third world that has an impressive resume and can speak good enough English to get a job in the US)
- MBA education must only be weighed on a return on investment basis, comparing the cost and time of getting the degree with your projected future earnings. If you want to learn something theoretical, go read a book. If you want to learn how something actually works, talk to multiple people in that field. If you are bored and unhappy with your job, get a better one if you can. Otherwise just suck it up
- I don't know about the MBA job market enough these days but my gut tells me that only positions that are recruiting in top 10 or maybe top 20 MBA programs will offer the right returns on investment for someone that has a well-paid job in a professional service firm to spend $100,000 and forgo 2 years of income
- Don't even think about your employer paying for your MBA unless you work for a major management consulting firm, a big corporation that has specific arrangements with a top business school (Ford-HBS comes to my mind) or a non-US government entity (Singapore government and Japan central bank/ministry of finance come to my mind)
- GMAT scores are generally used as gatekeepers for top MBA programs. Once you pass a certain score, it doesn't matter. That said, the GMAT threshold for Asian males is at least 730 these days for top MBA programs
- For Asian males, there are generally two ways of getting into a top MBA program: 1) Have an impeccable resume, i.e. Ivy undergraduate degree, 3.8+ GPA, 2 years in an investment bank + 2 years in a major private equity/hedge fund or 2 years in a management consulting firm + 2 years doing something interesting or 2) From now on, do everything right to the admissions people but silly otherwise (e.g. working 50 hours a week and being in the top tier in a professional service firm + be the chairperson of your local Habitat for Humanity chapter + take a leave of absence for 3 months volunteering in Tibet) and beg (I mean it literally) them to let you in
- I assume both options are not applicable or appealing to you so I will skip the pros and cons but let me tell you who are the people that would most likely thrive in top MBA programs: women and minorities (and needless to say Asian males don't count), people that are and can sound passionate but don't know enough about investment banking or management consulting, people that have very specific dream jobs that top business schools can bridge to (the best example I have heard of is product manager for Xbox, another example is MBA marketing programs for major consumer packaged goods corporations like Kraft and Pepsi which bridge to top marketing jobs in the country), smart and capable professionals that are making very little money now so the return on investment is high (e.g. Navy SEALs, failed entrepreneurs, anyone from the third world that has an impressive resume and can speak good enough English to get a job in the US)
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
再一次討論香港樓市
今晚和友人吃飯，談起投資物業的問題。記得今年類似的對話已經有十次八次，結果大則吵得面紅耳赤，小則其中一方借故轉移話題，看來是我的想法比較獨特，卻又不善辭令的原因。
友：我現在和家人住，但手上有一點閒錢，現在銀行利息這麼低，把錢放在銀行不如拿錢去供樓吧。
我：你傻了嗎？現在地產交投淡靜，大陸人不再來香港買樓，發展商都看不好後市，最近政府也不再賣地，曾俊華更三番四次警告買樓要小心，現在買樓的不是炒居屋就是是那些只有幾十萬現金在手但害怕自己以後上不了車的 stupid money , smart money 已經離場了，香港地產泡沫爆破是遲早問題。
友：我問過業界的朋友，他說樓市的確有些風險，但最多只有百分之二十的調整。
我：就算是真的只有百分之二十的調整，爲什麽不等它跌了百分之二十才入市？
友：因為現在股市已經跌了很多，看來還會繼續下跌，閒錢除了買樓之外沒有什麽出路。
我：其實這個世界除了股票與地產外還有很多投資工具，如果你覺得股市會繼續下跌的話，可以選擇拋空股票。
友：我不像你讀過那麼多書，在華爾街做過事，不懂這些東西。
我：假如你不懂的話，你有第三個選擇，就是把錢放在銀行收息。投資賺錢不是必然的，如果你不想去學習，也不想付錢給人幫你投資，爲什麽要買一些明知會跌的東西？
友：你從外國回來，可能不太明白香港人的傳統智慧，覺得有一舊磚頭揸手的重要。
我：也要看你付多少錢去買這舊磚頭。
友：現在利息這麼低，供樓的錢大部份用來還本，只有小部份拿來付利息，買樓比租樓化算。
我：利息已經慢慢回升了，你也許沒有考慮管理費，裝修費以及那筆首期用來投資其他東西的機會成本。如果樓價不變的話，在香港租樓差不多一定比買樓化算。
友：但我聽過很多人買樓賺錢的例子。
我：你幾時聽過人家會大聲說自己買樓蝕錢的。沒錯，假如你早年在香港買樓差不多一定賺錢，但那些在九七年樓市見頂時買樓的，到現在也可能未歸本。
這時，友人識趣地轉移話題，分析梁振英的居屋派糖政策。看來樓市泡沫一天未爆破，類似的爭論一定會再發生。
友：我現在和家人住，但手上有一點閒錢，現在銀行利息這麼低，把錢放在銀行不如拿錢去供樓吧。
我：你傻了嗎？現在地產交投淡靜，大陸人不再來香港買樓，發展商都看不好後市，最近政府也不再賣地，曾俊華更三番四次警告買樓要小心，現在買樓的不是炒居屋就是是那些只有幾十萬現金在手但害怕自己以後上不了車的 stupid money , smart money 已經離場了，香港地產泡沫爆破是遲早問題。
友：我問過業界的朋友，他說樓市的確有些風險，但最多只有百分之二十的調整。
我：就算是真的只有百分之二十的調整，爲什麽不等它跌了百分之二十才入市？
友：因為現在股市已經跌了很多，看來還會繼續下跌，閒錢除了買樓之外沒有什麽出路。
我：其實這個世界除了股票與地產外還有很多投資工具，如果你覺得股市會繼續下跌的話，可以選擇拋空股票。
友：我不像你讀過那麼多書，在華爾街做過事，不懂這些東西。
我：假如你不懂的話，你有第三個選擇，就是把錢放在銀行收息。投資賺錢不是必然的，如果你不想去學習，也不想付錢給人幫你投資，爲什麽要買一些明知會跌的東西？
友：你從外國回來，可能不太明白香港人的傳統智慧，覺得有一舊磚頭揸手的重要。
我：也要看你付多少錢去買這舊磚頭。
友：現在利息這麼低，供樓的錢大部份用來還本，只有小部份拿來付利息，買樓比租樓化算。
我：利息已經慢慢回升了，你也許沒有考慮管理費，裝修費以及那筆首期用來投資其他東西的機會成本。如果樓價不變的話，在香港租樓差不多一定比買樓化算。
友：但我聽過很多人買樓賺錢的例子。
我：你幾時聽過人家會大聲說自己買樓蝕錢的。沒錯，假如你早年在香港買樓差不多一定賺錢，但那些在九七年樓市見頂時買樓的，到現在也可能未歸本。
這時，友人識趣地轉移話題，分析梁振英的居屋派糖政策。看來樓市泡沫一天未爆破，類似的爭論一定會再發生。
Monday, August 20, 2012
香港台北機票續篇
剛從台北回香港，意猶未盡，到華航網站看看下個禮拜香港到台北的機票，只要是七日內來回的連稅和燃油附加費都只是港幣一千七百多，而且這個價錢差不多所有時間的航班也管用。沒有其他的數據也沒有和業內人士討論過，斗膽提出以下結論：
1）我剛去台北坐的是國泰，機票港幣兩千多，是上個月國泰大減價時買的，來回經濟客艙都有八成滿。下個禮拜是八月最後一個禮拜，按理應該是航空交通非常繁忙的禮拜，現在卻要大減價促銷, 看來華航大部份班次都尚有大量空位。
2）通常在出發日期前幾天買票的都是時間沒有什麽彈性的商務旅客，所以航空公司會針對客源而提高價錢。看看在同一時間的台北松山到上海虹橋的航班便知道 （價錢以台幣計算），所有禮拜一，五，日的航班由上海回台北的航班都滿了：
看來商務乘客不是坐國泰來往港台就是坐大陸台灣航空公司直接來往兩岸。
3）假如逗留在台北逗留七日以上，價錢比逗留七日一下貴了大概四百港幣，原因是在台北逗留短一點的應該是來自香港的旅客，逗留長一點的應該是在台北有家有室，會傾向坐華航或長榮的。
華航沒有國泰國際化，信譽和安全紀錄也比較差，價錢比國泰便宜是正常的，但情形比我想像的還要差。坊間有華航四年魔咒的說法，但上次嚴重空難已經是十年前，不信邪的我短期內都會在出發前一兩個禮拜才在華航網站購買往台北的機票了。
Friday, August 17, 2012
航空業的三個謊言
因為颱風關係班機延誤兩個小時，百無聊賴之下就和大家分享一下三個航空業的謊言吧！
1）航班起飛前兩小時要到機場，半小時到閘口
我一年起碼坐飛機最少二十次，航班從來沒有試過準時起飛，這個其實是航空公司想早點確認乘客數目以便多賣些機票及預留時間糾正錯誤的伎倆。香港機場應該是全世界最有效率的機場之一，如果不是扶老攜幼或有特殊物品寄艙，一個小時前到機場，十五分鐘前到閘口就可以了。
2）九一一後的種種安全措施令劫機事件減少
看過不少保安專家的分析，九一一後主要由美國引進的安全措施例如不准帶液體上機，增加人手搜身次數和脫鞋檢查等的目的主要是令旅客感覺安全一點，這些措施難不倒有計劃有經驗有運氣的劫機者，而一貫的措施對付笨賊綽綽有餘。這個現象英語叫 security theater, 中文可以譯作安檢大龍鳳。九一一後只有兩個改變是真的改善旅客安全的：1）駕駛艙門鞏固了，機司甚麼時候也一定把駕駛艙門鎖上，2）乘客假如懷疑有人劫機，會立即出手制止，就算犧牲自己生命也在所不惜。幾年前有劫機者試圖在飛往美國底特律的航班引爆炸彈，就是被幾個奮不顧身的乘客及時阻止的。
3）在飛機起飛降落時開手提電話會影響儀器運作
手提電話與飛機無線電設備的頻率完全不同，兩者是不會互相干擾的。航空公司禁止使用手提電話的目的，是避免干擾機場附近手提電話通訊塔的運作。要知每一部手提電話其實是一個小小的通訊塔，假如讓幾千個通訊塔同時高速地在香港上空飄移，會對地面手提電話網絡做成影響。
其實航空公司說謊是可以理解的，這些規矩背後的原因很難說得明白，對乘客也沒有直接的影響，假如說真話的話輕則做成乘客不安，重則影響機場運作。本來還想多揭穿一兩個謊言，不過飛機還有十五分鐘要起飛，所以到此為止。
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
吾國與吾民
週末逛書展經過辰衝書局的攤位，令我想起一位已故的長輩，辰衝書局老闆李信章先生。我家在香港親戚不多，但在小時候爺爺每年都會帶我到半山李家拜年，只記得大宅裏面很多人，他們說的客家話我聽不懂，但只要說幾聲恭喜發財就收到幾百塊的利是，所以每次拜年都非常雀躍。準備到美國升大學那年的暑假，爺爺有一天要我陪他到中環，說有禮物給我，結果到了德輔道中的 Hong Kong Book Centre, 李公公已經一早恭候，說了幾句恭賀說話後便從書架拿了一本林語堂的英文版吾國與吾民給我，叫我帶到美國有空看看。
謝了李公公，把書放進行李帶到美國，但當時年少氣盛，美國聲色犬馬，有空都不會看課外書，有一次大家搬小家，就把書連同一些雜物一併扔掉了。去國十年，爺爺和李公公先後作了古，有一次和叔叔閒談，才知道爺爺幾十年前生意失敗，如果不是當年李公公接濟，可能已經抹了脖子，可以說是沒有李公公就沒有我們一家人。李公公多年來接濟過的潦倒老鄉和文人肯定不止爺爺一個，而且所有四十歲以上的香港番書仔女都曾經是辰衝顧客，小時候只是用利是多少去衡量人家，難聽一點真的是狗眼看人低。
在書展攤位找不到吾國與吾民，打電話到總店，他們說全線已經斷了貨，最後一本也在去年賣掉，問他們是不是還是李家的，他們說是。在這個電子書和板腦流行的年代，買英文書不用再到辰衝，只要上網按幾下鍵便行，吾國與吾民可能由於在 1935 年出版的關係，在網路上已經有免費版，連那港幣百多元也可以省掉。十年樹木百年樹人，辰衝已經有差不多一百年歷史。他們在下一代接手後，順應潮流，改變了店鋪風格，加了 Kelly & Walsh 的品牌，也開設了網上書店。在這裡祝願他們無論順境逆境都能解決問題，努力經營下去。
Monday, July 23, 2012
香港的機場
三年前剛搬到香港時即遇上八號風球，公司剛巧在香港開大會，美國的大老闆也特地蒞臨。和今天一樣，天文臺下午三時放風會在五時掛八號風球，到了五時真的掛了八號風球時所有在會議室外的同事早已作鳥獸散，但是大老闆還滔滔不絕，要人事部經理打電話三催四請才肯離開公司回酒店。有幾位香港同事提議一同吃晚飯，我當時獨居公司附近，從來不煮飯，剛回香港時也想與同事多聯誼一下，便答應了。奇怪的是同行的有些住在新界，有些是從日本來港開會的，他們幹嗎不回家回酒店，還點了幾瓶花雕佐膳。酒足飯飽後，還要清理一點公事，便先告辭了。
歸家不久，便收到大老闆電郵，要在晚上九時在電話上繼續進行會議。到了九時十五分，只有大老闆，美國一位同事和我參加了，其他香港同事遍尋不獲，發電郵打電話都沒有回覆，那時我才恍然大悟，明白八號風球時赤蠟角機場雖然關了門，但港九其他機場仍然遊人如鯽，起機落機之餘可能還要加班，不過這些東西怎樣解釋給美國人也不會明白，亦沒有必要枉作小人，便告訴他們手機網絡可能在颱風下發生故障，所以同事沒有收到電郵，我們不如照常開會，之後我發個電郵摘要給正在沖上雲霄的同事便行。
三年來經歷過不少颱風，香港江山依舊在，可是機場也因為市場轉型和內地競爭關掉不少。我三年前來香港時以為只是來幾個月，轉眼已經三年，風雨飄搖下，當天赴會的不少同事包括大老闆都離開了公司，我自己又何去何從呢？
歸家不久，便收到大老闆電郵，要在晚上九時在電話上繼續進行會議。到了九時十五分，只有大老闆，美國一位同事和我參加了，其他香港同事遍尋不獲，發電郵打電話都沒有回覆，那時我才恍然大悟，明白八號風球時赤蠟角機場雖然關了門，但港九其他機場仍然遊人如鯽，起機落機之餘可能還要加班，不過這些東西怎樣解釋給美國人也不會明白，亦沒有必要枉作小人，便告訴他們手機網絡可能在颱風下發生故障，所以同事沒有收到電郵，我們不如照常開會，之後我發個電郵摘要給正在沖上雲霄的同事便行。
三年來經歷過不少颱風，香港江山依舊在，可是機場也因為市場轉型和內地競爭關掉不少。我三年前來香港時以為只是來幾個月，轉眼已經三年，風雨飄搖下，當天赴會的不少同事包括大老闆都離開了公司，我自己又何去何從呢？
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)