Thursday, July 5, 2012

Euro end game Part 4: 3 trades if I were a professional investor

Warning: not to be attempted at home, not even with professional supervision

1. Long German bunds CDS: Greece, Spain and Italy's problems will eventually be German's problems but German bunds are still seen to be safe havens. Get in before they aren't safe.
2. Long European companies that have significant non-European exposure and short corresponding equity indices: Many European companies are not really European companies and the best example is LVMH. Find out who they are as their stocks will eventually beat their corresponding markets. Conversely, short US companies that have significant European exposure and long the S&P 500 or corresponding S&P sector indices
3. Short the RMB (or specifically by trading RMB NDFs). Decline in European exports, together with internal economic issues, will cause the People's Bank of China depreciate the currency further, which has already reversed direction. 

Any hedge fund wants to hire me?

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